70 percent of industrial capital market to decide the A-share (1)

Shang Fulin: go all out to safeguard the capital market and stable operation of the dominance of the market ... Who in the hands of
Small and medium-sized plate two new shares listed on the 23rd of Deng data: Fund-wide exposure from movements in energy prices adjusted analysis of all three plate QFII magic predicted that oil prices rise again this round where the cattle market to retail investors after the yellow wood-shrinking stealth and long-term concern industrial capital Game financial capital of the South Fund Investment Director Wang Hongyuan, in the end of April this year, told reporters fiscal Weekly, "What time is no longer listed companies to finance large-scale, no longer underweight, but has started to buy back shares and the stock market has Is the bottom. "
Today, the balance has begun to favour the other side: industrial capital, that is, those non-release cage the size of the operation of the stock market are changing trajectory.
Control 70 percent of the market value of industrial capital to decide the A-share
Be regarded as "China's worth investing in the stock one of the" Ping An of China (601,318, it shares) (601318. SH), from 148.78 yuan per share fell 47.6 yuan, only spent half a year. China Ping An into the abyss, it is non-size.
Compass TOPVIEW software, only hidden in Ping An Securities in Shenzhen nosy three-way non-business department of the size of the 120 who in recent days, the dished out over 90 billion chips. In June 18, Ping An Securities in Shenzhen nosy three-way securities business department is still safe despite China rose 3.95 percent, the day the case, decided in Dieting dished out 12 million price, the total amount of 530 million yuan. Short-strong force of the demonstrated fact.
"In fact, many secondary market investors are involved in the pick-China Ping An, I know of a body on the net buy more than 3 billion yuan. But it is clear that this will not help." A weekly financial market participants to the reporter disclosed. Wang Hongyuan, the former stock market by institutional investors, but they can not now, because "some people will sell you."
Chen Li in his latest research report "difficulties in China's transition asset pricing" that the industrial capital controls 70 percent of the market, making it the future trend of the stock market far beyond the impact of financial investors. To the steel industry as an example, the next six months pending the circulation market value of the steel industry accounted for 73 percent of the current flow of the market, which will bring a tremendous impact on the secondary market.
More importantly, the industrial capital and financial capital position are differences, the value of logic and financial capital significant differences. China Ping'an, Bank of Communications (601,328, it shares) (601328. SH), and other equities, such a phenomenon particularly evident.
"I think the people too Zuo Gupiao not really the size of the non-anyway have to earn money, but the sell-off is normal." Are preparing a large-scale national enterprises listed subsidiary of the responsible person raises the aspirations of industrial capital. National Securities analyst Ma Jun Tang that "very low cost of ownership, and other factors have determined the size of the reduction of non-determination."
Wang Hongyuan, and the size of particular concern to non-industrial and financial capital valuation differences. In his view, the industrial capital valuation method is more market-based, "similar to absolute valuation," "financial capital and consider only the next 12 months, the price-earnings ratio Shijing Shuai."
Wang Hongyuan said the "absolute value" logic and the "replacement cost". In other words, the industry must be weighed against the capital in the secondary market to buy stake in cost-effective or cost-effective to build factories. From a large number of listed companies on the asset into the game can be seen, the industrial capital may still prefer to sell financial assets to investors.
Industrial capital from 2400 to 2500 to stop selling point »
"The next bull market in what is« I think at least in line with these two conditions: first, accounting for 80 percent of market value, more than 90 percent of the size of the non-lifting of the ban have been the second is the major shareholders of listed companies and no longer willing to large-scale Financing, because the stock price has been below the intrinsic value of enterprises. "Wang Hongyuan said that only industrial and financial capital at the equilibrium point, the market is at the bottom.
"We think 16 times 2008 PE counterparts on the Topix index, it should be in 2400 points to 2500 points, and industrial capital will stop selling at this time." Chen Li in an interview with financial weekly said.
Chen Li of capital from the industry point of view, when the A-share price-earnings ratio from the current 19 times to 16 times the decline, the industrial capital no longer limit the sale of shares sold, but a large scale to enter the capital market, the industrial capital market leaders find value.
One of the logic is very simple: if not cash holdings after the Industrial investment, non-fled on Size will not stop. The key is, how to follow the industrial capital to find a bear market of rare opportunity, or to avoid the risk of often.
Wang Hongyuan in Tianjin in April this year publicly stated that "in this year's prices, because we realize that the market take the lead in the inflection point is the valuation of the basic pattern of change, we made some adjustments, based on fundamentals done a number of industries targeted . "Fiscal Weekly reporter learned that his so-called" targeted industry "is actually targeting the large-scale agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries section, the South Fund was targeted in this section of the nearly 10 billion yuan of asset size.
Huaxia Fund Chairman of the investment decision-making WANG Ya-wei has said, "If investors from the financial point of view, will find a lot of stock is very expensive, but from the perspective of industrial investment, will find that many stock valuations are cheap, A lot of investment opportunities. "He said the" opportunity "is the agricultural unit.
According to Chen Li of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries implied cost of equity (stock investors the expected rate of return) of 9.2%, far higher than the average over the past 10 ROE (industrial capital expected rate of return) in 2007 and three percent of the weighted Average ROE8.5%.
Information equipment, household appliances, electronic components, the implied cost of equity is higher than that of ROE, these industries reduce the size of the non-impulse relatively small, but, chemicals, nonferrous metals, light industry and manufacturing industries while the contrary.